It’s about that time, comes around about once every four years…

…And down the stretch they come! Careening down the last curve; in the blue saddle – fresh-faced junior Senator from Illinois (by way of Hawaii, Indonesia! And Kansas) Barack Hussein Obama, in the red stirrups, from Arizona (although not really) John Sidney McCain III. The occasion? Why it’s the Vice Presidential GP!

The most overrated of elective offices (at least unless your name is Dick Cheney and you consider yourself a separate and impenetrable branch of government) – incidentally also the office FDR famously described as “not worth a pitcher of piss”. Who will be the two parties’ nominees for VP and become the latest in a long list of people fighting with Aaron Burr for the honor of being the craziest office holders in the OEOB?

Well. The received wisdom is that John McCain has to chose his VP as an answer to Obama’s eventual pick (and probably in order to stomp on a little bit of the Dems bright spotlight he will announce his pick during the Democratic National Convention in Denver) and thus Obama gets to set the stage with his choice of running mate. Running mate might be too cheerful a choice of words though, his favorite hatchet man might be more by way of straight talk.

Most of the pundits believed that Obama would announce his choice for VP in the days leading up to the Olympics (the thinking being that after that America can’t focus on two things simultaneously…) bit that window of opportunity has come and gone. So now the thinking is that he’ll announce in the coming week (before Friday obviously since no one reads the Friday or Saturday papers).

The received wisdom in his choice for the spot is pretty uniform in that it will NOT be a risky, crazy pick. If that would’ve been the case most people were betting on Republican Chuck Hagel (which would’ve made an awesomely bipartisan ticket) but the Nebraskan Senator is just too Republican on just about anything and everything besides the war so that is considered a pretty solid no-go. There was also some discussion a few months ago about the possibility of seeing New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani on the ticket….haha, nah, just kidding – the OTHER New York Mayor, Mike Bloomberg! He is a Republican turned Independent who is one of America’s richest moguls with nice political breeding pedigree from the business world then taking over the governing operation of America’s finest city.

But that’s not gonna happen either. The word out of the Obama camp is that the Vice Presidential pick won’t be a barnburner or a huge surprise. Let’s meet the three contestants considered most probable by the punditry:

Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia.

Joe Biden, Senator from Delaware.

Evan Bayh, Senator from Indiana.

So, three white guys. Three seasoned politicians. But what does Barack Obama (and one of the two people in charge of the VP pick is actually Caroline Kennedy, JFK’s daughter) look for in a nominee? Most people say there’s two basic ways of looking at the VP pick – either Obama picks someone who shores up and strengthens a weakness in the Senator’s own profile (lack of foreign policy and national security bona fides? One of my favorite quotes from the campaign fray comes to mind (and it’s one from long ago so no one ever remember it!): “Obama wouldn’t know the difference between an RPG and a bong” John McCain.) or you look at a pick that would strengthen your candidacy among a certain demographic or state.
So let’s look at the three possible picks:

Joe Biden would be an incredible boost in the field of national security to ANY Democratic ticket, especially Senator Obama’s. He’s also Catholic which would certainly fire up the Boston Police Department-part of the electorate. On the downside it’s hard running as a change agent if you chose one of the longest serving members of the Senate as your running mate, even more so if that person himself has harbored Presidential plans more than once and had to withdraw with disgrace from the ’88 race after allegations of plagiarism. On a side note though, that Neil Kinnock plagiarism charge was kinda bogus – he unquestionably HAD borrowed that rhetorical device from the British Labour Party Leader, but he had credited Kinnock dozens of times – just not that ONE fateful time…

It is unknown at least to me whether or not Obama and Biden gets along that well. Like almost the whole Democratic field (except possibly Panderer-In-Chief Richardson) Biden criticized Obama for lacking experience in important maters etc etc.

Evan Bayh, like Obama is a charismatic, young Senator that burst onto the national stage by way of Convention keynote speeches (in Bayh’s case before Bill Clinton’s election, while Bayh was the Governor of Indiana). As a VP candidate Bayh would bring tremendous Army and National Security experience to the ticket. Indiana could also become a crucial swing state in the general election, being a state that has been going Republican for a long while but is showing strong signs of a Democratic surge. In fact, I read the other day how seasoned Republican operatives had conceded that if Bayh was on the ticket Indiana was lost and they would get out of Dodge fast. Senator Obama was campaigning with Senator Bayh in Indiana just the other week *hint hint* People say they get along swimmingly (although that might just be spin).

Timothy Kaine is the current Governor of Virginia (although he unfortunately looks like everyone’s least favorite neighbor), a former Jesuit (!) and thus also a member of the Catholic church (right?). He was most notably one of Senator Obama’s earliest endorsers (being the magnanimous, unassuming guy I am I won’t brag about the fact that I donated $:s to the Obama campaign the same day it was created…oh shoot, I did it again!) and is considered a personal friend of the Senators.

At least to me it is a little unclear what Governor Kaine would bring to the ticket by way of experience. He is of course a Governor and thus brings considerable executive experience but his supremely moderate ‘personal opposition’ to abortion and same-sex marriage might not exactly be a great unifying rallying-cry at the Convention. Being from Virginia I also imagine he’s a 2nd amendment champion although you shouldn’t put your money on anything I believe. What he however would bring to the ticket is, conceivably, the Commonwealth of Virginia – probably the biggest single solidly red state (and thus not counting Florida or Ohio) that could turn blue in 2008. Yeah that’s right, more important than North Carolina if you can imagine that. Virginia would be an incredible treasure in the Democratic column come election time – but a lot of people are actually saying that Obama shouldn’t look to Kaine to tie down Virginia surely, but instead the incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (who was a front-runner for the Dem’s presidential nomination back in 2006 but who decided not to run and shocked the whole intelligentsia – I smell an illegitimate child somewhere in the back!).

So who is it gonna be…

My bet is that Obama, come Tuesday or Wednesday will schedule a big outdoors spectacle in Indianapolis (what the weather look like for the next week up there?), and with Hoosiers For Obama banners waving in the breeze and gun totin’ rednecks hollering from behind the stage, Senator Obama will ask the spectators (and two hundred fifty thousand reporters) to join him in welcoming his pick for VP, Evan Bayh of Indiana, to the stage. Yep that’s it, my chips are on the table – I’ve made a choice. I’d much rather see Joe Biden as VP, but maybe he’ll be Secretary of State instead, and as for Governor Kaine, well you just help us turn Virginia blue come November either way!

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