The State Of The Race: Palin Edition

So, my dear friends, as our opponent likes to say (and man is that a great little trademark or what? Just goes to show why John McCain is absolutely the premier Republican they could’ve fielded against Senator Obama), what is the state of the race? First of all, it feels a little better than last week, eh?

Over the last week or so people I’ve known to love politics, both here in Lund and abroad, have asked for my opinion on Governor Palin and the prospects for Democratic victory come November.

And yeah, it was a genius pick. Absolutely right out of the McCain playbook – unpredictable and dare I say maverick-esque? The whole nomination of the woman just shows how Republicans to such a fantastic degree understand that politics is a contact sport, a fucking bloodbowl really. Case in point: Senator McCain hammer away at Senator Obama for months about how the single most important characteristic lacking the charismatic YOUNG Senator from Illinois is experience. He gets good traction off of it, for a while. But Rick Davis and McCain’s campaign folk knew he wasn’t headed towards a win in November so the genial part is where they decide that they’ve ridden the “experience”-donkey as far as they could and just throw it out of the window with the Palin nomination.

See, they know that voters don’t care about a little inconsistency, they’ve used the experience-card and in a stroke of genius they chuck out the window and pick up another one – the maverick moose-hunting hockey-mom reformer with executive experience and cougar looks-card. That’s a great card. No matter that it’s totally inconsistent (and the bullshit about Governor Palin’s foreign policy experience gleaned from living in Alaska which is really close to Russia…). Don’t kid yourself though, there’s enough bullshit to go around (although I’m obviously too biased in Senator Obama’s favor not to mention that he does it far less then Senator McCain ). Remember a few months ago, this was pretty much exactly what Obama did when campaigning in Ohio and Pennsylvania and talking at great length about renegotiating NAFTA so as to benefit blue collar workers. That was proven to have been a bold-faced lie later on when it leaked out that an Obama advisor was meeting with Canadian authorities stressing how that renegotiating NAFTA bit was just rhetoric – no matter, people don’t pay that close attention! I mean, off course you pander to working class people when you’re in Pennsylvania and Ohio (gawd…what’s wrong with Ohio?) and put on another coat when you’re campaigning in New York.

So Senator McCain’s Palin-pick was awesome, and made for fantastically fun reading.

Seriously folks, here’s a woman who would be one heartbeat away from the presidency (and an old one at that) and she had never held a passport until a year and a half ago! Here’s a woman who had never been abroad except Canada and Mexico before she became Governor, and then she only traveled to touch base with her national guardsmen. I mean, of course this is something that an International Man Of Mystery™ like myself would object to, and of course my European, communist liberal, proudly elitist self would see this as a great problem for a Presidential hopeful… But seriously, for people who don’t think that kind of thing matter, whether a person tasked to lead a country had ever even been abroad…if you don’t think that matter, then nothing I could possibly say would ever change your mind.

Governor Palin has a fantastic future ahead of her. She’s a reformer who dares take on intrenched interest, with a folksy feel and awesome looks. She will NOT be the Vice President of the United States come November but you better believe that she will be the next Republican superstar. When Republicans lose the presidency and fall even farther behind in both houses of Congress, a demoralized electorate will look for a new leader and Sarah Palin is the perfect candidate. I’m not an oracle by any means, but if you don’t think Governor Palin will have the absolute best Republican strategists on her team and will be putting together an exploratory committee the day after Senator Obama and Senator Biden are sworn in, then you’re crazy. Four years in the Alaskan governor’s mansion will be EXACTLY what she needs to shore up her credentials as an American leader and she will be one of the frontrunners for the Republican nomination in 2012 along with Governor Romney. She will be Ronald Reagan with tits. You heard it here first folks.

But was Sarah Palin the end of the Obama dream? Obviously no. People where panicking over the polls after the Republican nominating convention where Senator McCain was ahead in the horse race for a few days – but the exact same thing happened when the Democrats nominated the first woman nominee for VP, Geraldine Ferraro back in the 80’s. These numbers are soft and the polls are already coming down again. Senator Obama is ahead, for sure not by the margin he SHOULD be or I’d WANT him to be – but ahead he is. And sad as it is for the American economy (and if you thought American market crashes only affect America I might add that my portfolio is down to its lowest point in five years), the veritable implosion of the American markets only help Senator Obama.

So yeah, we’re still winning.

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Now Reading: “The Battle Of Corrin” Brian Herbert & Kevin Anderson

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The Holy Trinity – Part 1: “The Crib”

All through last year abroad, when asked, I would tell that there were three basic things I missed from back home (and none of them were certain kinds of foodstuffs or TV shows mind you); 1) Family and friends 2) My apartment and 3) watching soccer on the TV.

Having now spent more than a week back in my adopted hometown of Lund, and though many of my friends still haven’t shown up down here, and even though the Spanish soccer league hasn’t quite gotten started yet – I can at least say that it feels wonderful to be back in my apartment at Ulrikedalsvägen 2T.

Let’s just start off by saying that home means a lot to me, period. And for different reasons I would imagine. One of the reasons I love my apartment so much is certainly that I am nothing but a material guy. I love stuff and the only thing I like better than your stuff is my stuff. I love to be back home with my books on my bookshelves, to sit at my desk and tap away at my computer. I love being surrounded by stuff that means a lot to me, to be able to look up from the desk and get lost in my collage of black and whites from the last few years, look into smiling faces of friends I love from great nights almost forgotten. I love to have all my memories and nick nacks in one place.

But it’s more than that too, it’s also about the fact that studying is such a big part of my life, and since I do all my studying back home I love having a well kept place where I can control my surroundings and create a good atmosphere for work. Most people I know in law school do their studying in libraries or at the faculty, they get there at 9AM, take lunch at 11:30 and mosey on yonder home at 5PM sharp. I imagine that what they get from this is a clear distinction between the work day and their free time. They work diligently during the day and then they are able to disconnect that part of their brain and go on with their lives in the evening time. My typical study day is nothing like that and my mind don’t work like that. When I’m studying (and mind you my first seminar is Friday so I’m certainly not there yet!), it’s virtually all I think about and not something I compartmentalize for a certain number of hours every day.

And when I have the opportunity I enjoy not having my life enslaved to the 9-5 grind – I study just as much as the next guy, in fact more than most and a whole lot more than some, but if I feel like sleeping in I’ll do that and instead go until the wee hours of the morning. If, around 4PM I feel a little tapped out I might pop in a DVD and watch a movie, go workout or play some basketball with my buds, but then I’ll be back studying later. To me, a good learning environment means studying when you feel like it, so if I feel like only doing a couple of hours worth of reading one day and blow off the rest of the day by watching soccer, fine that’s what I’m gonna do. I’m certainly gonna make up for it the day after when I find some inspiration and sit in front of the desk the whole day.

And the wonderful thing about my life right now is that I can do this. My schedule permits me to work out or play some basketball every day, not because I have much spare time, but because I make time. I don’t take days off, I don’t flounder about. I don’t go out drinking on a Sunday. It’s probably not the most eminently social way of organizing your life, and I certainly see the positive aspects of studying 9-5, but it’s just not how my head works. I like being efficient ya knaw, not sitting in front of the TV watching reality shows when I could get some work done. Sure, I’ll waste half and afternoon watching The Wire once and again but it’s something I’m DOING you know, it’s not wasting time, it’s not American Idol.

So for now I’m content. My apartment is awesome and school is about to kick into gear. Currently I got one piece of prime Eriksson sleeping on a mattress in my living room since dear brother haven’t been able to find any place to live in this insane real estate market and tomorrow me, him and a bunch of foreigners I’m mentoring are heading out to have dinner and drinks at one of the places nearby. Life is good, as always. Now if only the Spanish soccer league would start we’d really be cooking with gas…

Now playing: “The Complete Aladdin Recordings” Lightnin’ Hopkins

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Now Reading: “The Machine Crusade” Brian Herbert & Kevin Anderson

It’s about that time, comes around about once every four years…

…And down the stretch they come! Careening down the last curve; in the blue saddle – fresh-faced junior Senator from Illinois (by way of Hawaii, Indonesia! And Kansas) Barack Hussein Obama, in the red stirrups, from Arizona (although not really) John Sidney McCain III. The occasion? Why it’s the Vice Presidential GP!

The most overrated of elective offices (at least unless your name is Dick Cheney and you consider yourself a separate and impenetrable branch of government) – incidentally also the office FDR famously described as “not worth a pitcher of piss”. Who will be the two parties’ nominees for VP and become the latest in a long list of people fighting with Aaron Burr for the honor of being the craziest office holders in the OEOB?

Well. The received wisdom is that John McCain has to chose his VP as an answer to Obama’s eventual pick (and probably in order to stomp on a little bit of the Dems bright spotlight he will announce his pick during the Democratic National Convention in Denver) and thus Obama gets to set the stage with his choice of running mate. Running mate might be too cheerful a choice of words though, his favorite hatchet man might be more by way of straight talk.

Most of the pundits believed that Obama would announce his choice for VP in the days leading up to the Olympics (the thinking being that after that America can’t focus on two things simultaneously…) bit that window of opportunity has come and gone. So now the thinking is that he’ll announce in the coming week (before Friday obviously since no one reads the Friday or Saturday papers).

The received wisdom in his choice for the spot is pretty uniform in that it will NOT be a risky, crazy pick. If that would’ve been the case most people were betting on Republican Chuck Hagel (which would’ve made an awesomely bipartisan ticket) but the Nebraskan Senator is just too Republican on just about anything and everything besides the war so that is considered a pretty solid no-go. There was also some discussion a few months ago about the possibility of seeing New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani on the ticket….haha, nah, just kidding – the OTHER New York Mayor, Mike Bloomberg! He is a Republican turned Independent who is one of America’s richest moguls with nice political breeding pedigree from the business world then taking over the governing operation of America’s finest city.

But that’s not gonna happen either. The word out of the Obama camp is that the Vice Presidential pick won’t be a barnburner or a huge surprise. Let’s meet the three contestants considered most probable by the punditry:

Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia.

Joe Biden, Senator from Delaware.

Evan Bayh, Senator from Indiana.

So, three white guys. Three seasoned politicians. But what does Barack Obama (and one of the two people in charge of the VP pick is actually Caroline Kennedy, JFK’s daughter) look for in a nominee? Most people say there’s two basic ways of looking at the VP pick – either Obama picks someone who shores up and strengthens a weakness in the Senator’s own profile (lack of foreign policy and national security bona fides? One of my favorite quotes from the campaign fray comes to mind (and it’s one from long ago so no one ever remember it!): “Obama wouldn’t know the difference between an RPG and a bong” John McCain.) or you look at a pick that would strengthen your candidacy among a certain demographic or state.
So let’s look at the three possible picks:

Joe Biden would be an incredible boost in the field of national security to ANY Democratic ticket, especially Senator Obama’s. He’s also Catholic which would certainly fire up the Boston Police Department-part of the electorate. On the downside it’s hard running as a change agent if you chose one of the longest serving members of the Senate as your running mate, even more so if that person himself has harbored Presidential plans more than once and had to withdraw with disgrace from the ’88 race after allegations of plagiarism. On a side note though, that Neil Kinnock plagiarism charge was kinda bogus – he unquestionably HAD borrowed that rhetorical device from the British Labour Party Leader, but he had credited Kinnock dozens of times – just not that ONE fateful time…

It is unknown at least to me whether or not Obama and Biden gets along that well. Like almost the whole Democratic field (except possibly Panderer-In-Chief Richardson) Biden criticized Obama for lacking experience in important maters etc etc.

Evan Bayh, like Obama is a charismatic, young Senator that burst onto the national stage by way of Convention keynote speeches (in Bayh’s case before Bill Clinton’s election, while Bayh was the Governor of Indiana). As a VP candidate Bayh would bring tremendous Army and National Security experience to the ticket. Indiana could also become a crucial swing state in the general election, being a state that has been going Republican for a long while but is showing strong signs of a Democratic surge. In fact, I read the other day how seasoned Republican operatives had conceded that if Bayh was on the ticket Indiana was lost and they would get out of Dodge fast. Senator Obama was campaigning with Senator Bayh in Indiana just the other week *hint hint* People say they get along swimmingly (although that might just be spin).

Timothy Kaine is the current Governor of Virginia (although he unfortunately looks like everyone’s least favorite neighbor), a former Jesuit (!) and thus also a member of the Catholic church (right?). He was most notably one of Senator Obama’s earliest endorsers (being the magnanimous, unassuming guy I am I won’t brag about the fact that I donated $:s to the Obama campaign the same day it was created…oh shoot, I did it again!) and is considered a personal friend of the Senators.

At least to me it is a little unclear what Governor Kaine would bring to the ticket by way of experience. He is of course a Governor and thus brings considerable executive experience but his supremely moderate ‘personal opposition’ to abortion and same-sex marriage might not exactly be a great unifying rallying-cry at the Convention. Being from Virginia I also imagine he’s a 2nd amendment champion although you shouldn’t put your money on anything I believe. What he however would bring to the ticket is, conceivably, the Commonwealth of Virginia – probably the biggest single solidly red state (and thus not counting Florida or Ohio) that could turn blue in 2008. Yeah that’s right, more important than North Carolina if you can imagine that. Virginia would be an incredible treasure in the Democratic column come election time – but a lot of people are actually saying that Obama shouldn’t look to Kaine to tie down Virginia surely, but instead the incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (who was a front-runner for the Dem’s presidential nomination back in 2006 but who decided not to run and shocked the whole intelligentsia – I smell an illegitimate child somewhere in the back!).

So who is it gonna be…

My bet is that Obama, come Tuesday or Wednesday will schedule a big outdoors spectacle in Indianapolis (what the weather look like for the next week up there?), and with Hoosiers For Obama banners waving in the breeze and gun totin’ rednecks hollering from behind the stage, Senator Obama will ask the spectators (and two hundred fifty thousand reporters) to join him in welcoming his pick for VP, Evan Bayh of Indiana, to the stage. Yep that’s it, my chips are on the table – I’ve made a choice. I’d much rather see Joe Biden as VP, but maybe he’ll be Secretary of State instead, and as for Governor Kaine, well you just help us turn Virginia blue come November either way!

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Now reading: "The Machine Crusade" Brian Herbert and Kevin Anderson